Sunday, October 30, 2016

Global Sea Ice Extent Is Plunging

Arctic sea ice extent is at a record low for this date of the year, and Antarctic sea ice extent is second-lowest. The results is that global SIE's anomaly is in completely new territory. (NSIDC data; anomaly relative to 1981-2010.)


And here's the global SIE for October 29th of each year since 1979:


Friday, October 28, 2016

70% of US CO2 Reduction Due Simply to Cheaper Natural Gas

US annualized CO2 emissions peaked in January 2008, at 6.01 gigatons of CO2 per year.

The latest US EIA data shows that July 2016 had annualized emissions of 5.12 Gt CO2/yr. 

("Annualized" just means the moving sum of the latest 12 months.)

That's a 15% decrease, and it's not trivial, especially in just 8+ years. Per capita emissions are down an impressive 29% from their peak.

How much of this decline is due to fracking, versus deliberate efforts to reduce our CO2 emissions? 

I estimate about 70% of this decline is due to exchanging coal power for power from natural gas, for electricity generation. Some of this is due to fracking, some due to simple economics of power plants, if indeed there's any difference. 


Oil emissions are up in recent months because oil prices are down. 

The result is


where the energy delivered from coal + natural gas hasn't changed much for about 15 years


indicating the difference in emissions isn't due much to reduced energy usage, but from switching from coal-genereated power to natural gas-generated power.

(The units energy engineers use suck. 1 Quad = 1015 BTU = 1.055 exajoules. 1 BTU = 1,055 Joules.)

The latest numbers say that the total change in CO2 emissions is down 896 Mt CO2 from its peak, whereas the change in CO2 emissions from coal + NG is down 634 Mt CO2 from its peak. 

So coal + NG makes up 71% of the decline. What remains -- less than 1/3rd -- is due to slightly more efficient cars, perhaps more efficient lighting, etc. 

But the bulk of the decline has come without individuals, or Obama, doing much in the way of CO2 reductions. Instead it's mostly from the switch of generating power via coal to generating power from natural gas. Because natural gas is now cheaper. 

So that reduction could well not hold if the relative prices of natural gas and coal, per BTU generated, stop holding or reverse.

So we, or Obama, don't really deserve a lot of credit. 

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Nostalgia


"Nostalgia locates desire in the past where it suffers no 
active conflict and can be yearned toward pleasantly."

- Robert Hass

Saturday, October 22, 2016

Callendar's 1938 Figure

And via Ed Hawkins on Twitter, here's an interesting figure from Guy Callendar's 1938 scientific paper:


It's from "The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and its Influence on Temperature," G. S. Callendar, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society v64 Issue 275 pp 223-240 (April 1938). [PDF]

Callendar also mentions the "well known" heat island effect, on page 235.

Note Callendar didn't attribute all the temperature rise to CO2. I don't see in his paper (though I haven't read it carefully) where he considered possible changes in solar irradiance (or, for that matter, a reduction in volcanic cooling that was part of the Little Ice Age). But those would be small, perhaps just a few hundreths of a degree (climate sensitivity to changes in solar radiance is small, about 0.1°C/(W/m2), for solar radiance measured at the top of the atmosphere; see the  IPCC 5AR).

1912 Newspaper Article on CO2 and Climate

Here's an interesting 1912 newspaper article from New Zealand:


The reference is: “Coal Consumption Affecting Climate,” Rodney and Otamatea Times, Waitemata and Kaipara Gazette, August 14, 1912.

Andrew Revkin has more here.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Fwd: New offering of Climate1x coming up soon! Starts Nov 1st.

-------- Forwarded Message --------

Subject: New offering of Climate1x coming up soon! Starts Nov 1st.
Date: Wed, 19 Oct 2016 17:06:33 +0000
From: Climate Change: The Science Course Staff <Climate1x-no-reply@courseupdates.edx.org>
To:


edX Course Update for Climate Change: The Science
edX Logo

Course Update from:
Climate Change: The Science

Go to Course

Dear David Appell,

Know anyone who wants to learn more about climate science? We have a new offering of Climate Change: The Science open for registration at https://www.edx.org/course/climate-change-science-ubcx-climate1x-2!  The course will start Nov 1st.  

If you have friends, colleagues, students, teachers, family, neighbors or anyone you think might enjoy this course, please feel free to pass along the link above.  Or maybe you would like to join us again, if you didn't have time to finish, or you're interested in earning a verified certificate.  We'd love to see you!

If you're active on twitter, facebook, or other social media, or if you are connected with listserves that might reach interested people, it'd be great if you could help spread the word. #climate1x, #climatechange, #mooc, and #edx are all useful tags.  Thanks for helping us connect with others!

Good luck to you with all your future climate-change-related activities!

Sara Harris and your Climate Change: The Science course staff






Friday, October 14, 2016

The Dirt from Anthony Watts and His Blog

Warning: Don't invite Anthony Watts to your parties. He has a habit of leaving a lot of vomit on the floor. Or Eric Worrall, who has been nothing but wrong.

I predict Worrall's string of failures, shown below, won't change his inept and stubborn mind one bit.

"Everyone knows the Paris agreement was dead on arrival."
- Eric Worrall, WUWT 5/28/16

"It seems likely Lord Deben’s concerns about the Paris Climate Treaty are shared by other prominent green politicians."
- Eric Worrall, WUWT 3/9/16

"If the Paris Climate Agreement was already a joke, the Chinese electricity export plan is surely the punchline."
- Eric Worrall, WUWT 4/17/16

"Aussie academic David Holmes, of the University of Melbourne, suggests that Politicians are using the Paris Agreement to defuse climate concerns, by claiming Paris “solved” the climate crisis – and he’s not happy about it."
- Eric Worrall, WUWT 5/23/16

"The initial explosion of green Euphoria at the announcement of the COP21 climate agreement, is rapidly giving way to dismay, as various environmentalists and other expectant parties realise how feeble their climate “victory” really is."
- Eric Worrall, WUWT 12/15/15

"It’s been a few weeks since the U.N.’s Paris Climate Conference (COP21) ended. Mainstream media from around the globe praised the impotent agreement, as though anyone expects political promises to be kept. The COP21 agreement reminded me of the proverb A promise is a comfort for a fool."
- Bob Tisdale, WUWT 12/30/15

PS: Doesn't Anthony Watts ever contribute to his own blog anymore? Then what are his sponsors paying for?

DeSmogblog has more.

Hayhoe Response to a Climate Denier

From a comment by Layzej, here's an instance of Kathleen Hayhoe smoothly dealing with a Texas city counciler...maniac...about his (quite trivial) objections to AGW.

Note the city councilor has a self-proclaimed "visceral" reaction to climate change -- not a rational reaction:



Notes from Those Underground

Some of the emails received by Kathryn Hayhoe, who was recently profiled in the NY Times. More here.

Thursday, October 13, 2016

When Bob Dylan Defended Zionism

Don't let the title, "Neighborhood Bully," fool you.

Neighborhood Bully - Bob Dylan from Noehed on Vimeo.

Lyrics:

Neighborhood Bully

WRITTEN BY: BOB DYLAN
Well, the neighborhood bully, he’s just one man
His enemies say he’s on their land
They got him outnumbered about a million to one
He got no place to escape to, no place to run
He’s the neighborhood bully

The neighborhood bully just lives to survive
He’s criticized and condemned for being alive
He’s not supposed to fight back, he’s supposed to have thick skin
He’s supposed to lay down and die when his door is kicked in
He’s the neighborhood bully

The neighborhood bully been driven out of every land
He’s wandered the earth an exiled man
Seen his family scattered, his people hounded and torn
He’s always on trial for just being born
He’s the neighborhood bully

Well, he knocked out a lynch mob, he was criticized
Old women condemned him, said he should apologize.
Then he destroyed a bomb factory, nobody was glad
The bombs were meant for him. He was supposed to feel bad
He’s the neighborhood bully

Well, the chances are against it and the odds are slim
That he’ll live by the rules that the world makes for him
’Cause there’s a noose at his neck and a gun at his back
And a license to kill him is given out to every maniac
He’s the neighborhood bully

He got no allies to really speak of
What he gets he must pay for, he don’t get it out of love
He buys obsolete weapons and he won’t be denied
But no one sends flesh and blood to fight by his side
He’s the neighborhood bully

Well, he’s surrounded by pacifists who all want peace
They pray for it nightly that the bloodshed must cease
Now, they wouldn’t hurt a fly. To hurt one they would weep
They lay and they wait for this bully to fall asleep
He’s the neighborhood bully

Every empire that’s enslaved him is gone
Egypt and Rome, even the great Babylon
He’s made a garden of paradise in the desert sand
In bed with nobody, under no one’s command
He’s the neighborhood bully

Now his holiest books have been trampled upon
No contract he signed was worth what it was written on
He took the crumbs of the world and he turned it into wealth
Took sickness and disease and he turned it into health
He’s the neighborhood bully

What’s anybody indebted to him for?
Nothin’, they say. He just likes to cause war
Pride and prejudice and superstition indeed
They wait for this bully like a dog waits to feed
He’s the neighborhood bully

What has he done to wear so many scars?
Does he change the course of rivers? Does he pollute the moon and stars?
Neighborhood bully, standing on the hill
Running out the clock, time standing still
Neighborhood bully

Saturday, October 08, 2016

Mosher

Steven Mosher, at Judith Curry's blog:
In short, there is PLENTY of ROOM within the climate science to hold extreme views, both about the science and policy. However,
there is no room for the luncacies of unicorns, for sun nuts, fo folks who dont get chaos, for radiative physics deniers, because you cant hold those views and actually Do science. you can do blogs and blog comments.. but that is about it