Thursday, May 18, 2017

Nearly All Warming Has Occurred Since 1965

Today NOAA announced that April was the 2nd-warmest year in their records. The monthly calculations of JMO and GISS found the same.

I thought I'd put up this chart, which is a calculation of the percentage of global warming that has happened since any point in the past. As usual, for any year Y:

total_warming(Y-to-present) = total_trend(Y-to-present)*(present-Y)


The total global warming from NOAA's data is now +0.95°C. Their record starts in Jan 1880.

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

The Excellent Blog, "The Science of Doom"

Have I ever mentioned here the blog "The Science of Doom?"

If not, I've been remiss. It's a mystery who writes it, but they obviously know their stuff. You could learn a lot about the basic of climate science, and more beyond that. While its postings can be irregular, it's worth following, and there is plenty of past content to keep you reading all about climate, the greenhouse effect, and what climate science is and implies.

Definitely check it out if you want to know more science.


Why Should I Pay?


Unfortunately, I don't know the exact source of this.

Lord (or Somebody Real), Please Help Us

This shows the damage deniers can do when people -- like Trump -- have no critical thinking skills. Trump reportedly got all worked up over a fake Time cover claiming that scientists once said an ice age was at hand. From Politico:


First, what kind of dummy is K.T. McFarland, deputy national security advisor, and -- well, we already know, don't we? -- what kind of a idiot is Trump?

Here's that fake Time cover:


I don't know who made it -- but they probably got a bonus this week for it.

By the way, as far as I'm concerned the definitive study on this claim is from Thomas Peterson, William Connolley and John Fleck:

"The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus," W. Peterson et al, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 1325–1337, 2008

From this paper's abstract:
An enduring popular myth suggests that in the 1970s the climate science community was predicting “global cooling” and an “imminent” ice age, an observation frequently used by those who would undermine what climate scientists say today about the prospect of global warming. A review of the literature suggests that, on the contrary, greenhouse warming even then dominated scientists' thinking as being one of the most important forces shaping Earth's climate on human time scales. More importantly than showing the falsehood of the myth, this review describes how scientists of the time built the foundation on which the cohesive enterprise of modern climate science now rests.
How dysfunctional is Trump? Reportedly he can't read more than one page of a national security briefing, and like a twisted narcissistic child, he has to see his name mentioned as often as possible. 
One unnamed source told Reuters that since Trump “keeps reading if he’s mentioned” in briefing materials, officials on the National Security Council have learned to insert the President’s name into “as many paragraphs as we can.”
I just hope we get rid of Trump before gets us all killed. (I really do.) 

Saturday, May 06, 2017

Sea Level and ENSO

I was looking around on Aviso's sea level FTP page, and came across this interesting graph, showing how sea level correlates with ENSOs.


MEI = Multivariate ENSO Index
MSL = Mean sea level. "Detrended" means the difference from the linear trend.

Added 5/7: Here's another one, right on the top page of the CU Sea Level page:


Sunday, April 30, 2017

Donald Trump blames constitution for chaos of his first 100 days | US news | The Guardian

Absolutely incredible: @realdonaldtrumo says the Constitution is a "really a bad thing for the country."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/29/trump-blames-constitution-for-first-100-days-chaos-presidency?CMP=share_btn_tw

Significant Quarterly Jump in Ocean Heat Content

The ocean has recovered from its heat loss during last year's El Nino, and is again accumulating heat.

Here are the data: 0-700 m, 0-2000 m.

Over the last quarter, the 0-700 m region of the ocean gained 1.1 W/m2, and the 0-2000 m region gained 1.3 W/m2.

Over 12 months, these regions gained 0.3 W/m2 and 0.5 W/m2, respectively.

Though both these numbers are barely higher than they were 2 years ago, in 1Q2015.

Here are the latest big numbers: anyone who wants to explain global warming via natural factors has to come up with 0.18 W/m2 since 1Q1955 for the 0-700 m region, and 0.65 W/m2 since 1Q2005 for the 0-2000 m region.

That's 180 ZJ and 125 ZJ, respectively.

(1 ZJ = 1 zettajoule =  1021 Joules.)

The first value is how much sunlight (240 W/m2) reaches the surface in 17 days, and the second in 12 days.




This Ice Spike Grew in My Freezer in Less than 30 Minutes

Sometimes I wonder what the heck is going on in there.


Last Year, Green Electricity Cost Me an Extra Nickel a Day

Image result for green electricityAwhile back I subscribed to my electricity provider's -- Portland General Electric -- Green Source Program, where the electricity I receive is 100% renewable.

They just sent me my annual statement for 2016. Turns out that this clean power costs me only an extra nickel a day.

In 2016, I used a total of 2,378 kWh -- an average of 198 kWh per month. (The average residential use is 901 kWh/month.) Total cost = $408. To make it green, I paid an extra $19.01, which works out to $0.008/kWh -- an extra 4.9%. Or $0.052 per day.

A nickel a day. $1.59 per month. Which I can easily afford. Who couldn't?

PGE said my purchase of green electricity saved 3,755 lbs of CO2 emissions -- 1.71 metric tons, when the average US per capita emissions is now 16.9 tonnes.

And that this was equivalent to not driving 4,190 miles. (So they're assuming 0.41 kg of CO2 emitted per mile.)

I drove 6,743 miles in 2016 (I keep track for tax purposes, and also personal interest). Avg = 27 mpg. Much of it up to Portland for lacrosse games, volleyball games, soccer games and swim meets. Hey, I'm a great uncle.

I'm also now buying green offsets for my natural gas usage, but I don't have much data yet to report.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Reagan on Scientific Research

"The remarkable thing is that although basic research does not begin with a particular practical goal, when you look at the results over the years, it ends up being one of the most practical things government does."

-- Ronald Reagan, Radio Address to the Nation, April 2, 1988

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

New Study: Sea level Rise is Accelerating

Sea level rise is up 25% since the 1990s, according to a new paper in GRL, mostly due to melting in Greenland. From an AGU blog:

http://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2017/04/26/sea-level-rising-faster-now-1990s-new-study-shows

From the paper's abstract:
The new GMSL [Global Mean Sea Level] rate over January 1993 to December 2015 is now close to 3.0 mm/yr. An important increase of the GMSL rate, of 0.8 mm/yr, is found during the second half of the altimetry era (2004–2015) compared to the 1993–2004 time span, mostly due to Greenland mass loss increase and also to slight increase of all other components of the budget.
Here is their final result, after all bias corrections:


which clearly is increasing faster than linear. The paper doesn't actually give a value for the acceleration -- it obviously depends on the times chosen -- but I'll try to estimate it. 

They write, "The EM [Ensemble Mean] GMSL rate is significantly lower during the first period compared to the second one (2.7 ± 0.2 mm/yr versus 3.5 ± 0.15 mm/yr)...." 

The two observation periods are Jan1993-Dec2004 and Jan2004-Dec2015 (yes, there's a slight overlap; I don't yet know why). Their midpoints differ by 11 years, so the acceleration is about


where "SLR" is Sea Level Rise. This is about what I get from fitting the Aviso-only data to a quadratic, as I did here, which now comes to 0.06 mm/yr2.

--

Added 4:40 pm -- I went ahead and calculated the uncertainty for this acceleration, given the uncertainties in the paper (which are only 1-sigma). The 2-sigma error for the acceleration is quite high, 0.27 mm/yr2

It's high mostly because the error on the first interval's SLR is high, 13% -- and that's only 1-sigma. I have to read more to figure out why.

Remember, this paper is based only on the 23 years of satellite data.

Saturday, April 22, 2017

Best #MarchforScience Posters and Signs

I'll keep this post pinned at the top for awhile as I find more and add them. Suggestions welcome.






















































Media preview



Media preview